Gregg Edwards recently wrote, New Jersey “is the first state in the nation to experience a decline in cigarette tax revenues after increasing the cigarette tax.” This should be a lesson to all public servants and smoker-bashers who seek to increase this discrimination tax for whatever reason.

In 2006, Center for Policy Research of New Jersey president Edwards and crew predicted this revenue drop would occur. A year later, with data in hand, Edwards reviewed the facts in an August 19, 2007 Asbury Park Press commentary:

To support the Fiscal Year 2007 state budget, Gov. Corzine successfully proposed increasing the cigarette tax by 17.5 cents, from $2.40 to 2.575 per pack. It was the fourth tax increase in a six-year period and it made New Jersey's tax the highest state tax in the nation.

Here was the result: In FY 2006, the cigarette tax raised more than $787 million. In FY 2007 — after it was hiked by almost 7 percent — the tax raised only $764 million, or $23 million less than the previous year.

According to Edward's commentary, the Center’s prediction that the tax had reached a tipping point, “in part, relied upon a clear pattern in cigarette sales. As New Jersey increased its tax, cigarette sales declined.”

Gregg explained,

Some of the sales decline was due to smokers giving up an expensive habit, but that can't explain its magnitude. Many smokers don't buy cigarettes from New Jersey retailers. Instead, some purchase cigarettes in the states that border New Jersey, all of which have lower cigarette prices. While New Jersey's sales are plummeting, Delaware's are increasing. And it's certainly not the case that more Delaware residents are becoming smokers. Also, some smokers make purchases via the Internet. Others even buy in the black market, which owes its very existence to New Jersey's steep tax.

Seemingly we're reaching the butt, if you will, with smokers. The question remains: When they've been taxed them to the point where it serves no political purpose, which sub-group is next? Don't worry, as history has shown, there are plenty of other human activities that can be easily demonized and politically exploited.