Portland’s light rail system “is becoming a victim of its own success,” began the August 30 Oregonian article. The punchline? On the Westside segment, average morning ridership has increased by 240 over the last five years. Stunning. Read it again slowly: From the spring of 2002 to spring of 2007, an average of 240 more people used this rail segment. Absolutely stunning.

To what is this phenomenal growth attributed? The reporter notes, “Ridership on the light-rail system is rising as gas prices remain high, getting more cars off the road.” Gas prices have been high for quite some time -- and the best we get is a 6 percent ridership increase, over five years? Point Two: Imagine, if all 240 of those average people drove alone, this hundreds of millions of dollars taxpayer-subsidized rail line only took 240 cars off the road in five years. And that’s the best case scenario.

The news gets better. “Afternoon rush hour ridership increased 11 percent during the same period, from an average of 4,450 in 2002 to 4,950 this year.”

Don’t jump for your calculator, I'll do the math: Over five years, during afternoon rush hour, a peak travel period by most definitions, an average of 510 more people…

John Charles, president of Oregon’s Cascade Policy Institute, wrote last November, “The most recent downtown employer survey by the Portland Business Alliance …. shows that light rail’s market share for downtown commuters dropped by 30% over the past five years. Considering that TriMet actually opened two new rail lines during that period, this is a stunning decline in ridership."

Charles points out, “In 2001, 20% of downtown employees traveled to work by light rail. By 2005 that had dropped to 14%. Meanwhile, the number of commuters who drove alone in private vehicles increased from 44% of all workers to 48%.”

To wit, Portland’s Metropolitan Area Xpress (MAX) light rail is a victim of its own success. In all this stunning success is a twist on that classic joke: Yes, we’re losing money on each sale, but don’t worry, we’ll make it up on volume. Except, there’s no volume either.

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Source: Patrick O’Neill, “MAX wants easier ride for bikers,” The Oregonian, Aug. 30, 2007, p. B1, 5.