Will the U.S. be driven to a single-payer health care system before the Big 3 automakers are driven into bankruptcy?

It's no surprise that General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler have been slouching towards bankruptcy, or at least national irrelevance, for nearly 40 years. The reasons are many, with gold-plated health care benefits high on the list. Over the years, union officials have surrendered additional pay raises in exchange for increases in health care benefits.

This exchange has hurt everyone. Coupled with its aging workforce and a growing number of retirees, the company's competitive position is steadily declining. Today's workers may have to suffer less compensation to make up for the obligations incurred in the name of today's retirees.

Today's Wall Street Journal (link for subscribers) predicts a rough set of negotiations this summer:

Detroit's Big Three, facing their worst crisis in decades, are seeking unprecedented concessions from the United Auto Workers union in a bid to narrow what they say is a $30-an-hour labor-cost disadvantage. ... The three are also resolved to move jobs abroad if they can't bring down U.S. wage-and-benefit costs, one industry executive says.

Union officials say that the worker compensation is not the only problem afflicting the Big 3. And of course, they're right, though describing those problems, often lodged in poor decisions by management, would take another blog post.

Still, there's no denying that health care costs put U.S.-headquartered automakers at a disadvantage. (Cue up the old joke about the pension / health care fund that makes cars.)

So what happens to those extra costs? GM, Ford, and Chrysler would like to address them in a variety of ways, many of which involve making cutbacks in compensation. It may seem unfair that today's workers are penalized for the promises made to workers who went before them, but whatever happened to "solidarity forever?"

The UAW, of course, would like somebody else to pay for the decisions of the past: YOU, the taxpayer.

In recent speeches, Mr. Gettelfinger has reiterated calls for the federal government to take over some or all of the auto makers' health-care burdens. "The UAW believes it would be immoral and irresponsible to abandon the hundreds of thousands of retirees who helped build GM, Ford and Chrysler. We are simply not going to do that," he said in a speech earlier this month.

Such a move, of course, would be a combination of several bad ideas: populism, national industrial policy (auto workers deserve special protection), moral hazard (make bad decisions? Let taxpayers bail you out!)